While reading recent coverage of the upcoming 2022 Steelers season I’ve noticed an argument emerging which calls into question the ability of the offense to perform more effectively than it had over the course of the previous three seasons. Proponents of this argument propose that the most significant issues with the Steelers’ passing game centered around the mid-to-deep levels of the passing attack, with contributing influences including (in no particular order): Chase Claypool’s regression from his first season (including poorly tracking deep passes and ineffectively completing combat catches), Mike Tomlin taking an overly risk-averse strategic position, poor play-calling, a lack of tight end threat up the seam of the defense, and poor performance from the offensive line.
Though I find this argument to be largely inaccurate, I think almost any Steelers fan would agree that the offensive line’s performance issues were a major limitation to the offense’s potential throughout the entire 2021 season. Even prior to JuJu Smith-Schuster’s injury, the offense was always going to be limited by the performance of the offensive line, and specifically its capacity to protect a version of Ben Roethlisberger who had long since lost his ability to be a dynamic threat rolling out of the pocket that we currently enjoy in Josh Allen’s game. When considering this argument from a systems-based perspective it is clear to see that the combination of these two elements served as an inflection point which dramatically limited the variability of the attack, and especially at the mid-to-deep passing game levels.
To add an element of data-driven rigor to this argument, I decided to use the nflreadr package (https://nflreadr.nflverse.com/) I recently discovered while working on a fantasy football analytics project to examine a few of Ben’s next-gen statistics from the 2021 season. By writing a few lines of code in RStudio (see below), I was able to qualify a sample of 31 quarterbacks from the 2021 season which had at least 250 attempts. I was then able to utilize this dataset to review several key statistics which relate to passing game depth, including the average air distance per attempt (a measure of the receiver’s average target depth), the average time to throw, and the average intended and completed air yards per attempt.
#Load packages
library(tidyverse)
library(nflreadr)
#Load dataset for analysis, filtering for data from the 2021 season for quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts
next_gen2021_250attempts <- data.frame(load_nextgen_stats()) %>% filter(season == 2021 & attempts >= 250)
#Examine data for relevant next-gen statistics, limiting results to bottom 10 in performance
timetothrow <- next_gen2021_250attempts %>% select(player_display_name,avg_time_to_throw) %>% slice_min(avg_time_to_throw, n=10)
view(timetothrow)
completedairyards <- next_gen2021_250attempts %>% select(player_display_name,avg_completed_air_yards) %>% slice_min(avg_completed_air_yards, n=10)
view(completedairyards)
intendedairyards <- next_gen2021_250attempts %>% select(player_display_name,avg_intended_air_yards) %>% slice_min(avg_intended_air_yards, n=10)
view(intendedairyards)
avgairdistance <- next_gen2021_250attempts %>% select(player_display_name,avg_air_distance) %>% slice_min(avg_air_distance, n=10)
view(avgairdistance)In examining these analytics, it becomes evident that the combination of his physical ability and the amount of protection time afforded to him no longer allowed him to engage the entire field as a dangerous passer. Rather, he was limited to an extraordinarily quick passing game which left no time for anything but a short passing game to develop. Consequently Ben’s next-gen statistical performance ranked near the bottom of the quarterback sample for nearly every statistic that relates to the passing game’s depth.
For example, Ben was 27th out of 31 qualifying QBs in average air distance and one of only 5 QBs that failed to reach 20 yards AAD (19.88, ahead of Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Maholmes, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Matt Ryan). Ben also had the fastest time to throw (2.38 seconds, ahead of Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Aarom Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Davis Mills), the lowest completed average air yards (4.43 yards, behind Tom Brady, Tua Tagovailoa, Aaron Rodgers, Jimmy Garoppolo, and Davis Mills) and the second-worst average intended air yards (6.74 yards), ahead of only Jared Goff and behind Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, Matt Ryan, Patrick Maholmes, and Davis Mills.
To put it simply, the numbers tell the same story we saw on gameday; the offensive line couldn’t protect an immobile Ben running a modified Canada scheme, and our only practical solution was to fire the ball off as fast and as short as possible.
The issues with the team’s offensive line have been at least somewhat addressed through free agency, and Chase Claypool no longer has to be relied upon to be the team’s primary deep threat with the additions of George Pickens and Calvin Austin III. Combine all of that with expected second-year production leaps by Harris and Freiermuth and a vastly more mobile QB group in Mitch Trubisky / Mason Rudolph / Kenny Pickett than Ben has been in years – not to mention a group far more in alignment with Canada’s preferred scheme – and I have every reason to both hope and expect a more effective, dynamic, and dangerous offense than what was produced throughout the 2021 season.
